IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Чехияwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Венгрияloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Чехия
No games played over 6 months.
Венгрия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
356 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
309 picks · 114 bans
Lina
267 picks · 502 bans
Mars
262 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 346 bans
Luna
245 picks · 333 bans
Nyx Assassin
229 picks · 488 bans
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Чехия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Венгрия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:10
Чехия 50%Венгрия 50%
The model gave 50% on Венгрия — the game was taken by Чехия in 24:30.
Game 2prediction missed30:59
Чехия 50%Венгрия 50%
The model gave 50% on Венгрия — the game was taken by Чехия in 42:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteВенгрия · 50%
Series resultЧехия 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2