?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chicken Fighters

No games played over 6 months.

EXTREMUM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 11 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1013 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 598 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 187 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 365 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 511 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 687 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
254 picks · 282 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
Chicken Fighters 62%EXTREMUM 38%
The model gave 62% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 26:14.
Game 2prediction missed47:25
Chicken Fighters 62%EXTREMUM 38%
The model gave 62% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 37:47.
Game 3prediction missed26:11
Chicken Fighters 62%EXTREMUM 38%
The model gave 62% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 31:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 62%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3