Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Goonsquadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
430 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 491 bans
Mars
349 picks · 495 bans
Weaver
342 picks · 492 bans
Kunkka
280 picks · 472 bans
Death Prophet
254 picks · 378 bans
Wraith King
249 picks · 334 bans
Grimstroke
245 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 80%
Hero pool strength50% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:31
Chicken Fighters 42%Goonsquad 58%
The model gave 58% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 27:38.
Game 2prediction correct7:35
Chicken Fighters 42%Goonsquad 58%
The model gave 58% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 26:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 58%
Series resultGoonsquad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2