Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Gilgir · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
tOfu · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
tOfu · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MISERY · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
tOfu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
55 picks · 110 bans
Puck
46 picks · 123 bans
Earth Spirit
44 picks · 33 bans
Void Spirit
39 picks · 67 bans
Monkey King
34 picks · 69 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 43 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 34 bans
Nyx Assassin
30 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
Chicken Fighters 52%Hellbear Smashers 48%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:49.
Game 2prediction missed20:27
Chicken Fighters 52%Hellbear Smashers 48%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 41:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 52%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2