Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
255 picks · 357 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 382 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 589 bans
Bane
223 picks · 154 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 252 bans
Lion
214 picks · 100 bans
Lina
211 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
206 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:25
Chicken Fighters 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by IVY in 35:21.
Game 2prediction missed6:36
Chicken Fighters 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by IVY in 31:41.
Game 3prediction missed11:34
Chicken Fighters 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by IVY in 43:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 62%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3