Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 998 bans
Mars
359 picks · 572 bans
Void Spirit
342 picks · 524 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 352 bans
Lion
331 picks · 180 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 699 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:33
Chicken Fighters 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Level UP in 27:40.
Game 2prediction missed30:12
Chicken Fighters 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Level UP in 32:10.
Game 3prediction missed20:13
Chicken Fighters 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Level UP in 23:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 58%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3