Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 17 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 15 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Flash · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
ntakii · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 979 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 704 bans
Mars
348 picks · 598 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 306 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 263 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
274 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:20
Chicken Fighters 59%No Bounty Hunter 41%
The model gave 59% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 32:10.
Game 2prediction missed30:8
Chicken Fighters 59%No Bounty Hunter 41%
The model gave 59% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 25:41.
Game 3prediction missed38:48
Chicken Fighters 59%No Bounty Hunter 41%
The model gave 59% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 41:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 59%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3