Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Goonsquadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 298 bans
Queen of Pain
418 picks · 522 bans
Weaver
374 picks · 543 bans
Mars
358 picks · 507 bans
Kunkka
292 picks · 486 bans
Spirit Breaker
268 picks · 503 bans
Wraith King
256 picks · 344 bans
Snapfire
249 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
CHILLAX 42%Goonsquad 58%
The model gave 58% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 43:29.
Game 2prediction correct29:35
CHILLAX 42%Goonsquad 58%
The model gave 58% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 1:01:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 58%
Series resultGoonsquad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2