Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Phoenixsignature
Peksu · 10 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Charlie · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Era · 9 games
Lion
Era · 8 games
Medusasignature
Charlie · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Charlie · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Peksu · 6 games
Linasignature
Era · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
280 picks · 424 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 397 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 660 bans
Bane
245 picks · 187 bans
Weaver
233 picks · 461 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 257 bans
Lina
211 picks · 480 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:40
CHILLAX 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:02:40.
Game 2prediction correct6:29
CHILLAX 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 33:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 58%
Series resultCHILLAX 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2