Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO1
result vs prediction
CHILLAXwin 1:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NMNo Monkey Businessloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
No Monkey Business
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Chenoften banned
antoha · 3 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 3 games
Razoroften banned
xannii · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 3 games
Bane
antoha · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
437 picks · 264 bans
Queen of Pain
377 picks · 495 bans
Mars
358 picks · 505 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 484 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 490 bans
Death Prophet
268 picks · 412 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 177 bans
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:31
CHILLAX 61%No Monkey Business 39%
The model gave 61% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 42:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 61%
Series resultCHILLAX 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1