?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Monkey Businesswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CHILLAX

No games played over 6 months.

No Monkey Business

Razor
Razorsignature
xannii · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
illusion · 9 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
xannii · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MieRo · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
445 picks · 276 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 577 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 460 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 741 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
330 picks · 457 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 474 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
291 picks · 424 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
286 picks · 431 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% CHILLAX
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:20
CHILLAX 66%No Monkey Business 34%
The model gave 66% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 42:59.
Game 2prediction missed20:40
CHILLAX 66%No Monkey Business 34%
The model gave 66% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 40:28.
Game 3prediction missed33:35
CHILLAX 66%No Monkey Business 34%
The model gave 66% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 45:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 66%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3