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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CHILLAX

No games played over 6 months.

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 280 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 612 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 478 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
374 picks · 497 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 780 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 519 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
321 picks · 496 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 468 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:37
CHILLAX 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 46:23.
Game 2prediction correct8:26
CHILLAX 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 24:39.
Game 3prediction correct44:25
CHILLAX 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 39:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%
Series resultCHILLAX 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3