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1win Series Dota 2 Punch · BO5
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 3:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 3:0
9Pandasloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

No games played over 6 months.

9Pandas

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 8 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 7 games
86%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
laise · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 649 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
455 picks · 524 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 569 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 395 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
338 picks · 258 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
329 picks · 911 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
323 picks · 669 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
Chimera Esports 62%9Pandas 38%
The model gave 62% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTA2000
51% · 191 game41% · 21 game
Drow RangerDarkLord^
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
48% · 254 games56% · 215 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDaxak
35% · 43 games51% · 83 games
Dawnbreakerlaise
Dawnbreaker
Lich
LichPanto
51% · 52 games51% · 221 game
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOneJey
54% · 248 games51% · 248 games
Rubickjesv
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Chimera Esports 61%9Pandas 39%
The model gave 61% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLorenof
48% · 63 games44% · 38 games
Drow RangerDarkLord^
Drow Ranger
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTA2000
44% · 8 games49% · 132 games
Earth Spiriterase
Earth Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
50% · 86 games49% · 121 game
Magnuslaise
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaPanto
55% · 140 games47% · 152 games
Muertajesv
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
57% · 171 game46% · 25 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Game 3prediction correct37:14
Chimera Esports 63%9Pandas 37%
The model gave 63% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
46% · 395 games43% · 166 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusTA2000
55% · 210 games45% · 110 games
Dawnbreakerlaise
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
53% · 115 games50% · 210 games
Invokererase
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaPanto
57% · 145 games50% · 326 games
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickOneJey
54% · 252 games47% · 305 games
Lionjesv
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 73%
Series resultChimera Esports 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3