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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 14 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
91%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 10 games
90%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 9 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 8 games
88%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Panto · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Lorenof · 7 games
86%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 24 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 24 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 24 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 366 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 549 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
367 picks · 471 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 566 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 586 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
350 picks · 384 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 371 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 35%
Hero pool strength61% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:30
Chimera Esports 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by OG in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
47% · 121 game44% · 57 games
Phantom Assassin23savage
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
42% · 314 games49% · 54 games
LycanCeb
Lycan
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
58% · 77 games48% · 457 games
TinyNine
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
52% · 192 games52% · 164 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
59% · 218 games51% · 190 games
PugnaxNova
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct18:9
Chimera Esports 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTA2000
45% · 96 games52% · 51 game
Slark23savage
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
54% · 189 games49% · 112 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
47% · 196 games52% · 174 games
MarsCeb
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
51% · 81 game49% · 159 games
MuertaAri
Muerta
Pugna
PugnaPanto
53% · 175 games49% · 241 game
ClockwerkxNova
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed36:37
Chimera Esports 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by OG in 1:05:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
46% · 309 games53% · 394 games
TinyNine
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusTA2000
49% · 152 games55% · 150 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDaxak
43% · 72 games56% · 141 game
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Pugna
PugnaPanto
47% · 109 games49% · 48 games
Night StalkerCeb
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOneJey
53% · 196 games47% · 105 games
LichxNova
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 67%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3