Chimera Esports vs One Move — prediction BDD2ЗК · Dota 2

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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

Chimera Esportswin 1:0

series probability

30%70%

probability at match start · final 1:0

One Moveloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

No games played over 6 months.

One Move

Disruptor

Xakoda · 10 games

30%

Legion Commandersignature

AfterLife · 9 games

89%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Ainkrad · 8 games

50%

Rubick

Panto · 8 games

50%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

AfterLife · 7 games

43%

Faceless Voidoften banned

Munkushi~ · 7 games

43%

Batridersignature

Gilgir · 6 games

67%

Skywrath Mage

Panto · 6 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

251 picks · 427 bans

52%

Muerta

225 picks · 317 bans

50%

Phoenix

216 picks · 347 bans

50%

Tusk

204 picks · 190 bans

46%

Centaur Warrunner

202 picks · 275 bans

51%

Dark Willow

202 picks · 97 bans

53%

Treant Protector

188 picks · 358 bans

54%

Kunkka

179 picks · 508 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%

Hero pool strength51% Chimera Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% One Move

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed45:17

Chimera Esports 40%One Move 60%

The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 38:33.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo