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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ching Splashloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ching Splash

No games played over 6 months.

V-Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 3 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
hAze · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kiritych · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Kiritych · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 814 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
357 picks · 488 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
306 picks · 538 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
274 picks · 443 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 230 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 500 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
235 picks · 356 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Ching Splash
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:43
Ching Splash 53%V-Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Ching Splash — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:35.
Game 2prediction missed28:44
Ching Splash 53%V-Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Ching Splash — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 38:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteChing Splash · 53%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2