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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO1
result vs prediction
Chipsblloss 0:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Novawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chipsbl

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Tabletkee · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tabletkee · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tabletkee · 2 games
0%
Bane
Bane
lilskrip · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
SuperNova · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Reynauld · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
0%

Nova

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 7 games
29%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 7 games
14%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
foryou · 6 games
67%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
foryou · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
foryou · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 275 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 594 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 470 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
354 picks · 479 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
352 picks · 767 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 500 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
302 picks · 447 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Nova
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Nova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
Chipsbl 45%Nova 55%
The model gave 55% on Nova — the game was taken by Nova in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordTabletkee
39% · 36 games62% · 22 games
Wraith Kingparadise'
Wraith King
little data
DazzleBb3px
Dazzle
61% · 14 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteNova · 58%
Series resultNova 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1