Открытые киберспортивные игры 2024 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ChristoFireloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ReBelwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ChristoFire
No games played over 6 months.
ReBel
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Max · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Max · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Rubick
Max · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
484 picks · 665 bans
Clockwerk
422 picks · 497 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 542 bans
Dark Willow
359 picks · 183 bans
Batrider
332 picks · 353 bans
Luna
329 picks · 436 bans
Enchantress
314 picks · 601 bans
Invoker
309 picks · 844 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% ChristoFire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% ReBel
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ChristoFire 31%ReBel 69%
The model gave 69% on ReBel — the game was taken by ChristoFire.
Game 2prediction correct
ChristoFire 31%ReBel 69%
The model gave 69% on ReBel — the game was taken by ReBel.
Game 3prediction correct
ChristoFire 31%ReBel 69%
The model gave 69% on ReBel — the game was taken by ReBel.
Model check result
Model favoriteReBel · 69%
Series resultReBel 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3