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PNXBET Invitationals Southeast Asia Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 4 games
25%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ab1ng · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
100%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
466 picks · 184 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 562 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 833 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 464 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 240 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 602 bans
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
295 picks · 277 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:33
Cignal Ultra 38%Army Geniuses 62%
The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 42:11.
Game 2prediction correct40:37
Cignal Ultra 38%Army Geniuses 62%
The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 50:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 62%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2