Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOYOwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassin
Abat · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Alchemist
Abat · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 1 game
HOYO
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Axe
Forev · 1 game
Clockwerk
boombell · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
37 picks · 72 bans
Puck
33 picks · 81 bans
Earth Spirit
30 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
27 picks · 42 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
Monkey King
24 picks · 43 bans
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 28 bans
Phoenix
23 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:35
Cignal Ultra 46%HOYO 54%
The model gave 54% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RubickJamesy
Lone DruidMeracle
little data
PuckFearless
little data
ViperForev
little data
PangolierJhocam
little data
Ogre Magiboombell
Game 2prediction correct
Cignal Ultra 41%HOYO 59%
The model gave 59% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 59%
Series resultHOYO 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2