Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Motivate.Trust Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
433 picks · 944 bans
Void Spirit
407 picks · 581 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 666 bans
Mars
333 picks · 584 bans
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 273 bans
Tusk
267 picks · 179 bans
Phoenix
260 picks · 378 bans
Grimstroke
252 picks · 219 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 55%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect