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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
100%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 6 games
67%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantress
343 · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 565 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
252 picks · 321 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
222 picks · 403 bans
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 165 bans
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
185 picks · 333 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 567 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
178 picks · 206 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
178 picks · 232 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:45
Cignal Ultra 49%Nigma Galaxy SEA 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAbat
46% · 17 games47% · 22 games
MorphlingAlaCrity
Morphling
Puck
PuckJamesy
47% · 80 games57% · 75 games
Void SpiritForce
Void Spirit
little data
Spirit Breaker343
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1