cincai team vs Pandawa Lima — prediction I2ОК · Dota 2

The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

CTcincai teamwin 2:1

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 2:1

PLPandawa Limaloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cincai team

Axeoften banned

TrazaM · 1 game

Doomoften banned

Red · 1 game

Faceless Voidoften banned

MangO · 1 game

Invokeroften banned

Wonder'boy · 1 game

Monkey Kingoften banned

Wonder'boy · 1 game

Night Stalkeroften banned

Red · 1 game

Phoenixoften banned

TrazaM · 1 game

Sniperoften banned

MangO · 1 game

Pandawa Lima

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

633 picks · 420 bans

54%

Rubick

539 picks · 302 bans

50%

Phoenix

487 picks · 588 bans

50%

Tiny

475 picks · 398 bans

49%

Pangolier

432 picks · 625 bans

49%

Puck

357 picks · 1004 bans

57%

Tusk

347 picks · 298 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

342 picks · 531 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Pandawa Lima

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total53% Pandawa Lima

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct16:35

cincai team 49%Pandawa Lima 51%

The model gave 51% on Pandawa Lima — the game was taken by Pandawa Lima in 39:52.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo