Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectsloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Sorrywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 32 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
layme · 25 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 24 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
477 picks · 666 bans
Tiny
469 picks · 502 bans
Bane
454 picks · 277 bans
Sand King
430 picks · 577 bans
Dragon Knight
380 picks · 444 bans
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 640 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 823 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% No Sorry
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
CIS Rejects 40%No Sorry 60%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 32:17.
Game 2prediction correct25:17
CIS Rejects 40%No Sorry 60%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 30:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 60%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2