Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
OmaR · 18 games
Pangolier
No!ob · 16 games
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
Grimstroke
OmaR · 12 games
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddon
LeBronDota · 11 games
Snapfire
No!ob · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
391 picks · 283 bans
Mars
377 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
309 picks · 176 bans
Weaver
298 picks · 711 bans
Queen of Pain
282 picks · 345 bans
Kunkka
232 picks · 400 bans
Disruptor
229 picks · 154 bans
Ember Spirit
227 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 27%
Hero pool strength53% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
CIS Rejects 83%Spider Pigzs 17%
The model gave 83% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects.
Game 2prediction missed35:28
CIS Rejects 83%Spider Pigzs 17%
The model gave 83% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 51:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 83%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2