DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Dawningwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCrescentloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Dawning
No games played over 6 months.
Crescent
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
Dark Willow
冷鸟 · 1 game
Earthshaker
Kry · 1 game
Hoodwink
冷鸟 · 1 game
Juggernaut
MangO · 1 game
Linaoften banned
MangO · 1 game
Pangolier
Kry · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
522 picks · 314 bans
Dark Willow
439 picks · 212 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 305 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 503 bans
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 292 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 512 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Crescent
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Cloud Dawning
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:33
Cloud Dawning 54%Crescent 46%
The model gave 54% on Cloud Dawning — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning in 48:06.
Game 2prediction correct
Cloud Dawning 54%Crescent 46%
The model gave 54% on Cloud Dawning — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning.
Game 3prediction correct26:6
Cloud Dawning 54%Crescent 46%
The model gave 54% on Cloud Dawning — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning in 20:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud Dawning · 54%
Series resultCloud Dawning 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3