DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCrescentloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Rising
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 6 games
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 6 games
Pucksignature
Q7 · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
Storm Spirit
Q7 · 5 games
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games
Baneoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
Necrophosoften banned
Yumeyume · 4 games
Crescent
Dark Willow
冷鸟 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
Hoodwink
冷鸟 · 2 games
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
Earthshaker
Kry · 1 game
Juggernaut
MangO · 1 game
Kezoften banned
MangO · 1 game
Linaoften banned
MangO · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
523 picks · 315 bans
Dark Willow
442 picks · 212 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
342 picks · 307 bans
Ember Spirit
329 picks · 506 bans
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Crescent
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Cloud Rising
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:2
Cloud Rising 60%Crescent 40%
The model gave 60% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 12:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosSrf
Outworld DestroyerWonder'boy
SlarkYumeyume
JuggernautMangO
PangolierQ7
Crystal Maiden冷鸟
TechiesUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct
Cloud Rising 67%Crescent 33%
The model gave 67% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising.
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud Rising · 67%
Series resultCloud Rising 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2