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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Conventus Stellarumloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Conventus Stellarum

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
0%
Techies
Techies
OmaR · 2 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Ghost · 2 games
100%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Panto · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
OmaR · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
100%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 37 games
51%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
484 picks · 294 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
343 picks · 144 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 156 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 463 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 447 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
276 picks · 251 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
269 picks · 197 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Conventus Stellarum 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
53% · 66 games45% · 137 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
49% · 177 games51% · 110 games
ViperShad
Viper
Doom
DoomDM
50% · 134 games49% · 133 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
55% · 114 games48% · 197 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Bane
BanePanto
52% · 147 games48% · 61 game
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed48:39
Conventus Stellarum 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Conventus Stellarum in 1:07:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
48% · 282 games51% · 34 games
SpectreShad
Spectre
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
58% · 342 games51% · 23 games
Outworld Destroyerbzm
Outworld Destroyer
Doom
DoomDM
48% · 192 games48% · 273 games
Axe33
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
48% · 265 games52% · 776 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
45% · 276 games51% · 251 game
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct35:33
Conventus Stellarum 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 59:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
49% · 229 games50% · 220 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
51% · 310 games49% · 177 games
Doom33
Doom
Slark
SlarkLorenof
59% · 41 game39% · 30 games
SpectreShad
Spectre
Mirana
MiranaPanto
53% · 109 games57% · 163 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesOmaR
43% · 118 games46% · 217 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 63%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3