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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Conventus Stellarumwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PlayTimeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Conventus Stellarum

No games played over 6 months.

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolier
DarkMago · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 13 games
31%
Axe
Axesignature
Frank · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
464 picks · 285 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 137 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
314 picks · 128 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 447 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 291 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
283 picks · 417 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 213 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
265 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Conventus Stellarum
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:6
Conventus Stellarum 51%PlayTime 49%
The model gave 51% on Conventus Stellarum — the game was taken by Conventus Stellarum in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
49% · 282 games47% · 67 games
NecrophosFCR
Necrophos
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerLorenof
34% · 7 games48% · 244 games
TinyYuma
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaDM
57% · 71 game57% · 74 games
Lina4nalog
Lina
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
53% · 67 games44% · 79 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPanto
58% · 187 games38% · 150 games
Dark WillowElmisho
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct35:48
Conventus Stellarum 49%PlayTime 51%
The model gave 51% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 1:04:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
55% · 147 games46% · 384 games
WindrangerYuma
Windranger
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendGhost
45% · 346 games53% · 119 games
NecrophosFCR
Necrophos
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
53% · 101 game56% · 434 games
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
48% · 650 games56% · 204 games
MiranaElmisho
Mirana
Bane
BanePanto
48% · 252 games43% · 355 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct36:42
Conventus Stellarum 53%PlayTime 47%
The model gave 53% on Conventus Stellarum — the game was taken by Conventus Stellarum in 1:12:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
54% · 109 games45% · 119 games
TimbersawFCR
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLorenof
54% · 183 games44% · 175 games
WindrangerYuma
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
54% · 135 games47% · 26 games
Earthshaker4nalog
Earthshaker
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
52% · 225 games48% · 353 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
64% · 215 games41% · 194 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteConventus Stellarum · 54%
Series resultConventus Stellarum 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3