Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionCECoritiba E-Sportswin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dreamersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Coritiba E-Sports
No games played over 6 months.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
582 picks · 456 bans
Mars
423 picks · 647 bans
Puck
397 picks · 857 bans
Dragon Knight
395 picks · 516 bans
Bane
372 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 166 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 619 bans
Pangolier
315 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Coritiba E-Sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Coritiba E-Sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:22
Coritiba E-Sports 50%Dreamers 50%
The model gave 50% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by Dreamers in 41:16.
Game 2prediction missed10:26
Coritiba E-Sports 50%Dreamers 50%
The model gave 50% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by Dreamers in 39:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteCoritiba E-Sports · 50%
Series resultCoritiba E-Sports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2