Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionCECoritiba E-Sportswin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Coritiba E-Sports
No games played over 6 months.
Ravens
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 4 games
Bane
Cara · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Mirana
d1smar · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 442 bans
Mars
460 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 539 bans
Bane
410 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 625 bans
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 650 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:31
Coritiba E-Sports 34%Ravens 66%
The model gave 66% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 36:08.
Game 2prediction correct17:35
Coritiba E-Sports 34%Ravens 66%
The model gave 66% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 36:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 66%
Series resultCoritiba E-Sports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2