Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionCECoritiba E-Sportswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Coritiba E-Sports
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 460 bans
Mars
435 picks · 681 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 529 bans
Bane
397 picks · 273 bans
Puck
362 picks · 834 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 637 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Coritiba E-Sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Coritiba E-Sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:14
Coritiba E-Sports 53%South Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by South Team in 32:40.
Game 2prediction missed34:11
Coritiba E-Sports 53%South Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by South Team in 35:41.
Game 3prediction missed6:25
Coritiba E-Sports 53%South Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Coritiba E-Sports — the game was taken by South Team in 25:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteCoritiba E-Sports · 53%
Series resultCoritiba E-Sports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3