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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
62%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 9 games
22%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
bzm · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 7 games
57%

B8 Esports

Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 26 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 18 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Watson · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
279 picks · 534 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
274 picks · 400 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 371 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
241 picks · 253 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 322 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
207 picks · 239 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Creepwave 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
48% · 30 games51% · 79 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Tidehunter
TidehunterCrystallis
54% · 129 games46% · 128 games
Void SpiritDendi
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarATF
56% · 38 games53% · 37 games
LycanLimitless
Lycan
Weaver
WeaverChuvash
42% · 76 games58% · 49 games
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
Shadow Shaman
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFishman
35% · 20 games
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Creepwave 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
61% · 57 games46% · 119 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Tiny
TinyCrystallis
45% · 53 games45% · 69 games
LycanLimitless
Lycan
Mars
MarsATF
43% · 149 games51% · 88 games
MagnusDendi
Magnus
Chen
ChenChuvash
48% · 12 games64% · 59 games
Earthshaker[T]SA
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfireFishman
52% · 64 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 61%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2