Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
Marssignature
ATF · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
304 picks · 623 bans
Void Spirit
286 picks · 352 bans
Mars
246 picks · 427 bans
Earth Spirit
233 picks · 185 bans
Rubick
200 picks · 107 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 379 bans
Nyx Assassin
194 picks · 604 bans
Phoenix
189 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 38%
Hero pool strength70% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Creepwave 72%IVY 28%
The model gave 72% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCrystallis
WeaverCopy
Death ProphetMalr1ne
VenomancerTheBloodySky
TidehunterATF
RubickMiLAN
AbaddonFishman
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Creepwave 69%IVY 31%
The model gave 69% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 24:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Monkey KingCopy
MarsATF
Sand KingTheBloodySky
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
PhoenixMiLAN
Bounty HunterFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 84%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2