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ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwaveloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
90%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 7 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
43%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MiLAN · 6 games
50%

Team Empire

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 11 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
75%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
433 picks · 177 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 622 bans
55%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 477 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 697 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
304 picks · 122 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
291 picks · 525 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 330 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
263 picks · 356 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 76%
Hero pool strength51% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:28
Creepwave 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Creepwave in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallis
56% · 37 games46% · 321 game
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Mars
MarsATF
45% · 257 games53% · 40 games
Spectredyrachyo
Spectre
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
52% · 238 games40% · 52 games
BrewmasterShachlo
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowChuvash
60% · 68 games49% · 132 games
Clockwerksayuw
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorKataomi
57% · 43 games49% · 98 games
HoodwinkVANSKOR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct16:32
Creepwave 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
52% · 131 game46% · 84 games
Lunadyrachyo
Luna
Spectre
SpectreCrystallis
54% · 72 games45% · 241 game
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Mars
MarsATF
45% · 285 games52% · 99 games
BeastmasterShachlo
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowChuvash
60% · 89 games48% · 110 games
Clockwerksayuw
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorKataomi
52% · 56 games46% · 99 games
HoodwinkVANSKOR
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct33:31
Creepwave 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 54:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linabzm
43% · 156 games52% · 106 games
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Razor
RazorCrystallis
57% · 62 games56% · 139 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 193 games59% · 49 games
BrewmasterShachlo
Brewmaster
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKataomi
43% · 97 games45% · 160 games
HoodwinkVANSKOR
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowChuvash
55% · 85 games49% · 139 games
Clockwerksayuw
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 51%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3