Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO5
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 3:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Marssignature
ATF · 15 games
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Razoroften banned
ATF · 10 games
Bane
Fishman · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 9 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 9 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
bzm · 8 games
Winstrike Team
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
Marssignature
chshrct · 16 games
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 15 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
Lion
yamich · 13 games
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
Lina
284 picks · 538 bans
Mars
280 picks · 408 bans
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
244 picks · 256 bans
Luna
231 picks · 328 bans
Abaddon
208 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Creepwave
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total61% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:8
Creepwave 58%Winstrike Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinbzm
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
Monkey KingCrystallis
Puckmellojul
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Tidehunterchshrct
RubickChuvash
Weaveryamich
SnapfireFishman
Elder TitanPanto
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Creepwave 59%Winstrike Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendbzm
Tinydyrachyo
WeaverCrystallis
Earthshakerchshrct
SlardarATF
Batridermellojul
Ogre MagiFishman
Shadow Demonyamich
OracleChuvash
DisruptorPanto
Game 3prediction missed27:33
Creepwave 58%Winstrike Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerbzm
Lifestealerdyrachyo
BloodseekerCrystallis
Void SpiritEgor
SlardarATF
Venomancerchshrct
Monkey KingChuvash
WeaverPanto
SnapfireFishman
Nyx Assassinyamich
Game 4prediction correct39:9
Creepwave 57%Winstrike Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinybzm
Medusadyrachyo
TimbersawATF
Void Spiritmellojul
Monkey KingCrystallis
Venomancerchshrct
WeaverChuvash
Tidehunteryamich
AbaddonFishman
Elder TitanPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 61%
Series resultCreepwave 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4