Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionCCrewmateswin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inverseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 2 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Axe
H1j4ck · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
DFlash · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 1 game
Inverse
Grimstroke
Slaw · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
DM · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Slaw · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DM · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
DM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
135 picks · 301 bans
Mars
134 picks · 245 bans
Earth Spirit
119 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
113 picks · 169 bans
Phoenix
103 picks · 115 bans
Keeper of the Light
87 picks · 156 bans
Nyx Assassin
85 picks · 300 bans
Rubick
84 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Inverse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Inverse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:32
Crewmates 33%Inverse 67%
The model gave 67% on Inverse — the game was taken by Crewmates in 38:11.
Game 2prediction missed25:9
Crewmates 44%Inverse 56%
The model gave 56% on Inverse — the game was taken by Crewmates in 18:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinFCR
GyrocopterDM
Nature's ProphetH1j4ck
OracleSlaw
Batrider4nalog
Winter WyvernDFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteInverse · 67%
Series resultCrewmates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2