Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionCCrewmateswin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inverseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 3 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
DFlash · 3 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Grimstroke
DFlash · 2 games
Inverse
Grimstroke
Slaw · 6 games
Elder Titan
Slaw · 2 games
Gyrocopter
DM · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
DM · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Migi · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
437 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 576 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 704 bans
Mars
346 picks · 594 bans
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 305 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 267 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Inverse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Inverse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:8
Crewmates 50%Inverse 50%
The model gave 50% on Inverse — the game was taken by Crewmates in 24:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetFCR
NecrophosArzenT
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
KunkkaMigi
Void SpiritRayuur
Crystal MaidenSlaw
AbaddonDFlash
Game 2prediction missed24:8
Crewmates 50%Inverse 50%
The model gave 50% on Inverse — the game was taken by Crewmates in 20:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidFCR
NecrophosMigi
Dragon KnightRayuur
PuckArzenT
LeshracH1j4ck
GrimstrokeSlaw
AbaddonDFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteInverse · 52%
Series resultCrewmates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2