Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionCCrewmateswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crewmates
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Abaddon
DFlash · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Grimstroke
DFlash · 2 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Mad Kings
Wraith Kingoften banned
NaoG · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Tano · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sacred · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Snapfire
Prada · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
268 picks · 550 bans
Void Spirit
243 picks · 307 bans
Mars
218 picks · 394 bans
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 163 bans
Keeper of the Light
176 picks · 320 bans
Nyx Assassin
174 picks · 551 bans
Phoenix
173 picks · 202 bans
Wraith King
170 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 22%
Hero pool strength55% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Crewmates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
Crewmates 55%Mad Kings 45%
The model gave 55% on Crewmates — the game was taken by Crewmates in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoFCR
Weaverdrakesh1t
Death Prophet4nalog
Queen of PainÑengoflow KELOKE
TidehunterH1j4ck
AbaddonDFlash
Game 2prediction correct36:9
Crewmates 59%Mad Kings 41%
The model gave 59% on Crewmates — the game was taken by Crewmates in 23:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaFCR
Ursadrakesh1t
Nature's ProphetH1j4ck
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
Puck4nalog
UndyingDFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteCrewmates · 65%
Series resultCrewmates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2