Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cuyes Esports
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Jakiro
Mjz · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 3 games
Evil Rabbit
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
LOyd · 2 games
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
369 picks · 771 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 342 bans
Rubick
337 picks · 240 bans
Weaver
337 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
314 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
303 picks · 493 bans
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
287 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Cuyes Esports 64%Evil Rabbit 36%
The model gave 64% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMnz
PuckButterflyEffect
SlardarILICH-
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Treant ProtectorMjz
ClockwerkQYQX
47% · 41 game
SnapfireLOyd
Game 2prediction correct33:28
Cuyes Esports 65%Evil Rabbit 35%
The model gave 65% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 48:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightMnz
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
HoodwinkMjz
JakiroQYQX
50% · 143 games
WeaverLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 76%
Series resultCuyes Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2