The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoPing VPNloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cuyes Esports
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
Tusk
Matthew · 2 games
Clockwerk
Matthew · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Linaoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
NoPing VPN
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Demon · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
hFn · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
Oracle
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Snapfire
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
hFn · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
447 picks · 690 bans
Crystal Maiden
434 picks · 200 bans
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 556 bans
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
355 picks · 619 bans
Rubick
353 picks · 169 bans
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 876 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 653 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Cuyes Esports 56%NoPing VPN 44%
The model gave 56% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 20:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherILICH-
LifestealerhFn
TinyParker
UnderlordOscar
Crystal MaidenMjz
Witch DoctorCHAAANNN
47% · 245 games
RubickDemon
Game 2prediction correct35:30
Cuyes Esports 57%NoPing VPN 43%
The model gave 57% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordParker
MedusahFn
DoomILICH-
SlardarOscar
DisruptorMjz
Witch DoctorCHAAANNN
52% · 76 games
Dark WillowDemon
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 64%
Series resultCuyes Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2