The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
O+Orrai + 4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cuyes Esports
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
Tusk
Matthew · 2 games
Clockwerk
Matthew · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Linaoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Orrai + 4
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 4 games
Zeusoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SmAsH · 2 games
Dazzleoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
Axeoften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 742 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 744 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1025 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Orrai + 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:8
Cuyes Esports 74%Orrai + 4 26%
The model gave 74% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 33:50.
Game 2prediction correct13:35
Cuyes Esports 74%Orrai + 4 26%
The model gave 74% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 23:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 74%
Series resultCuyes Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2