Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
CYBER UNIONwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
nitrokgloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CYBER UNION
Tiny
Miyaoo · 12 games
Silencer
Arti_Shock · 11 games
Tusk
OneJey · 10 games
Lich
Arti_Shock · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 4 games
nitrokg
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 267 bans
Marci
304 picks · 553 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 214 bans
Undying
279 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 452 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 522 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% nitrokg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% CYBER UNION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
CYBER UNION 58%nitrokg 42%
The model gave 58% on CYBER UNION — the game was taken by CYBER UNION in 33:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBER UNION · 58%
Series resultCYBER UNION 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1