Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybercats
Clockwerk
Hduo · 16 games
Hoodwink
Fezor · 16 games
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 11 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Egor · 11 games
Doomoften banned
Fezor · 10 games
HF
Tiny
nicky`cool · 10 games
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
Techies
weebian · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 7 games
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 7 games
Mirana
SOhY · 7 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
SOhY · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
610 picks · 393 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 523 bans
Tiny
529 picks · 431 bans
Treant Protector
419 picks · 499 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 372 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 188 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 764 bans
Clockwerk
313 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 31%
Hero pool strength55% cybercats
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total69% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
cybercats 60%HF 40%
The model gave 60% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaAlberkaaa
Ursaxannii
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Pangoliererase
Tidehunterzenica
MarsActor
Shadow Demonjesv
Rubickweebian
Clockwerkforcemajor
SilencerSOhY
Game 2prediction correct22:7
cybercats 60%HF 40%
The model gave 60% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
Monkey Kingxannii
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Pangoliererase
Tidehunterzenica
BeastmasterActor
Shadow Demonjesv
Rubickweebian
Treant Protectorforcemajor
PhoenixSOhY
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 69%
Series resultcybercats 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2