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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Sorryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 12 games
25%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
22%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
USHUSHUSH · 7 games
86%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fezor · 5 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fezor · 5 games
60%

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 40 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 29 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 28 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 28 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 24 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 444 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 684 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
463 picks · 283 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 517 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
413 picks · 565 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 647 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 607 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
355 picks · 309 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% No Sorry
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:28
cybercats 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by cybercats in 48:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
55% · 26 games55% · 124 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
52% · 288 games54% · 194 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Visage
VisageDkFogas
55% · 55 games42% · 47 games
UnderlordLastHero-
Underlord
Doom
DoomFezor
56% · 122 games43% · 188 games
SnapfireBLACKARXANGEL
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
36% · 65 games43% · 3 games
Marciy0nd
Marci
Game 2prediction correct35:52
cybercats 47%No Sorry 53%
The model gave 53% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
54% · 440 games52% · 219 games
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Lycan
LycanDkFogas
55% · 110 games47% · 467 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEgor
44% · 296 games54% · 246 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
44% · 204 games41% · 7 games
Marciy0nd
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFezor
49% · 362 games51% · 473 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 3prediction missed38:16
cybercats 49%No Sorry 51%
The model gave 51% on No Sorry — the game was taken by cybercats in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistEgor
50% · 9 games51% · 68 games
Anti-MageKami
Anti-Mage
Juggernaut
JuggernautShigetsu
42% · 63 games50% · 457 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingDkFogas
48% · 247 games55% · 101 game
BatriderWorick
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFezor
53% · 237 games54% · 104 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
47% · 231 game48% · 57 games
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 55%
Series resultcybercats 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3