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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
CyberHeroloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CyberHero

Rubick
Rubick
Wein · 12 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Htrd · 7 games
71%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Ainkrad · 5 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Htrd · 5 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
50%

Kalmychata

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 7 games
43%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 352 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
471 picks · 259 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
413 picks · 185 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 341 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 525 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 148 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 297 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
300 picks · 531 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% CyberHero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% CyberHero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:23
CyberHero 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on CyberHero — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 24:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerWoE
48% · 492 games53% · 139 games
Clinkzyowaai
Clinkz
Timbersaw
TimbersawBb3px
47% · 295 games51% · 389 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAinkrad
45% · 263 games58% · 411 games
Ember SpiritEthereal
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaHtrd
50% · 277 games51% · 359 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Largo
LargoWein
51% · 310 games48% · 339 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed13:22
CyberHero 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on CyberHero — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
52% · 72 games47% · 92 games
Clinkzyowaai
Clinkz
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
52% · 144 games47% · 129 games
ViperEthereal
Viper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBb3px
42% · 170 games52% · 73 games
EnigmaAnkou
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaWein
52% · 180 games49% · 252 games
WindrangerFernans
Windranger
Dazzle
DazzleHtrd
59% · 97 games48% · 117 games
Undyingani-san
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteCyberHero · 54%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2