CyberHero vs Shadow Dance — prediction DS3ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

CyberHerowin 2:0

series probability

71%29%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Shadow Danceloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CyberHero

Rubick

Wein · 10 games

50%

Earth Spiritoften banned

Ainkrad · 7 games

29%

Winter Wyvernsignature

Htrd · 7 games

71%

Doomoften banned

Bb3px · 5 games

60%

Storm Spirit

Ainkrad · 4 games

75%

Brewmasteroften banned

Bb3px · 3 games

67%

Centaur Warrunner

Bb3px · 3 games

67%

Hoodwink

Wein · 3 games

67%

Shadow Dance

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

518 picks · 337 bans

49%

Dark Willow

449 picks · 241 bans

51%

Mirana

402 picks · 182 bans

53%

Winter Wyvern

354 picks · 325 bans

58%

Ember Spirit

333 picks · 511 bans

56%

Centaur Warrunner

298 picks · 292 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

293 picks · 514 bans

53%

Windranger

293 picks · 134 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%

Hero pool strength53% CyberHero

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total71% CyberHero

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:9

CyberHero 61%Shadow Dance 39%

The model gave 61% on CyberHero — the game was taken by CyberHero in 27:16.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo