The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
460 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
Mars
366 picks · 583 bans
Puck
363 picks · 870 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 244 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 428 bans
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:3
D2 Hustlers 79%5ManMidas 21%
The model gave 79% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 28:58.
Game 2prediction missed10:28
D2 Hustlers 79%5ManMidas 21%
The model gave 79% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 26:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 79%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2