The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
mason · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
mason · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
461 picks · 191 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
Mars
368 picks · 587 bans
Puck
364 picks · 876 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 433 bans
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:24
D2 Hustlers 61%Arkosh Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 46:05.
Game 2prediction missed31:36
D2 Hustlers 61%Arkosh Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 52:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 61%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2