Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
922 picks · 629 bans
Tiny
648 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
551 picks · 882 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 543 bans
Snapfire
494 picks · 333 bans
Death Prophet
477 picks · 1041 bans
Clockwerk
450 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:38
D2 Hustlers 40%Monaspa 60%
The model gave 60% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 53:34.
Game 2prediction correct27:31
D2 Hustlers 40%Monaspa 60%
The model gave 60% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 34:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 60%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2